000
FXUS61 KCLE 262318
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
718 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will linger across the area tonight into Wednesday. By
late Wednesday, high pressure will briefly build across the
area. A strong low pressure system will develop over the Middle
Mississippi River Valley on Thursday and move northeast into
the area for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Adjusted temperatures for the western tier of counties to be
reflective of current obs which is a bit higher than previously
forecast. Clouds have already begun to slowly spread west, which
should slow cooling and prevent conditions from reaching the
point of frost occurring. This will need to continue to be
monitored.

Previous Discussion...
Lake effect rain showers have resurged in strength on a
northwest to southeast axis, generally between the Akron/Canton
and Youngstown areas this afternoon as the Lake Huron fetch
continues. Anticipate that this lake effect rain band will
continue to weaken with lowering inversion heights and as
850-700 mb winds begin to veer away from the 1000-850 mb winds.

Widespread cloud cover across NY this afternoon will continue to
spread west across the area this evening and tonight. We`ll have
to monitor trends in how fast the cloud cover can reach the
western tier of counties (i.e. those along the I-75 corridor).
If cloud cover is too slow-approaching, the frost potential
would be much higher across this area, given ideal conditions
for radiative cooling.

Unfortunately, much of the area should still see widespread
cloud cover on Wednesday, though there could be some clearing
possible east to west in the late afternoon and evening. Wednesday
should be more pleasant than Tuesday, with temperatures in the
upper 50s and generally light winds, albeit widespread
cloudiness. Any clearing or cloud breaks that occur Wednesday
night should not last long as the next storm system will
approach the region on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low is progged to move into the Middle Mississippi
Valley region by Thursday night and then east across the Ohio Valley
during this forecast period. This low will be vertically stacked
with the surface low pressure system and affect the entire eastern
third of the Lower 48 States. A conveyor belt of moisture will
stream north in the warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico into
the storm system.  This will bring a potential for another round of
rainfall the local area and may not bode well for some locations
with nearly saturated ground. Storm total QPF amounts will range
from around 1 inch to as much as 1.25 inches across the area. The
additional rainfall will likely result in additional runoff and
possibly the threat for streams and creeks going out of their banks
along with some main stem rivers. So, this situation will have to be
monitored closely over the next couple days.  In the mean time, a
retreating high pressure ridge will shift east of the area Thursday
and will result in fair weather across the area.  Temperatures
Thursday will likely be the warmest in the warm air advection with
highs in the middle 60s. As precipitation returns to the area, highs
will struggle to get out of the 50s Friday. Lows Thursday night and
Friday night will be in the 50s and middle to upper 40s respectively
as the low pressure system begins to affect the local area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Large vertically stacked upper level low pressure system will move
east-northeast out of the Ohio Valley region Saturday into Sunday
and will begin to take the rain with it.  This will allow an upper
level ridge to build east toward the area Sunday through Monday.
Another upper level trough is expected to slide south into the
western Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley region by Monday
afternoon resulting in a developing low pressure system over the
northeastern Great Lakes.  This system will move east and force a
stationary front progged to be over area Monday to shift southeast
as a cold front Tuesday. A cold pool of air will nudge into the
forecast area by Tuesday and set the stage for a cooling trend
heading into the middle of next week. No major precipitation makers
are expected to affect the local area during this forecast period
and will hopefully allow any remaining runoff from the early weekend
rain to recede.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Primarily VFR conditions for western terminals and MVFR
conditions for eastern terminals are being observed across the
area this evening. Clouds will gradually push west this evening
and overnight, extending the MVFR conditions to the western
terminals as well. A period of IFR conditions are expected from
9Z to near sunrise for KCLE to KMFD and east. Scattered light
lake effect showers continue across NE OH. These will gradually
shift east as well, but any terminal impacted by the
precipitation may have reduced visibilities to MVFR.

Gusty winds have begun to diminish across the area, with KTOL
and KFDY receiving northerly winds near 10 knots. The remainder
of the terminals remain gusty with sustained northerly winds of
10-15 knots, gusting to 20 knots. The weakening trend will
continue into the overnight hours from west to east, with all
terminals receiving northerly winds of 5-10 knots by sunrise.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periods of rain Thursday night
through Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty winds on Lake Erie will begin to gradually diminish with time
tonight into Wednesday morning as deep low pressure pulls away from
the area. Another storm system will move east across the Ohio Valley
region and force winds to shift to a southeast direction Friday and
increase as well. Over time, as the low moves east of the area,
winds will become more northeast by Friday night.  Depending on how
far north the low tracks, winds should remain lighter than the
current system.  If the low moves further north, then will need to
bump winds up with this system. Winds finally shift around to the
west-northwest by Sunday in advance of the surface ridge of high
pressure.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Kahn
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Lombardy

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion