139
FXUS61 KCLE 200639
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
139 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic cold front will cross the region through this evening.
High pressure will gradually build in by Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 PM EST Update...
Snowfall rates have become a bit less efficient and lake effect
snow has become a bit less organized, but still expect light
and periodically moderate snow through the next few hours.
Forecast soundings suggest that DGZ/boundary layer moisture will
diminish within the next few hours, which should allow snowfall
rates to decrease late tonight into early Monday morning. Opted
to maintain existing winter headlines as is since upstream
precip appears to be dwindling a bit, but there is potential for
isolated instances of over-performance in a few spots including
Cuyahoga, Lake, and Summit counties if additional moderate snow
develops. Locations outside of the Winter Weather
Advisories/Lake Effect Snow Warning will likely see continued
light to occasionally moderate snow, which could produce
slippery and hazardous travel. Special Weather Statements remain
in effect for locations that are experiencing hazardous travel.
700 PM EST Update...
Widespread snow showers continue across most of the area this
evening and made some adjustments to PoPs to account for latest
radar trends. There are currently a few areas of interest: a
band of moderate to heavy snow near the OH/PA border and a line
of snow showers currently extending from the Cleveland metro
area southwestward into Morrow County in addition to some more
disorganized moderate snow showers across the remainder of the
snowbelt of NE OH. Snow will continue to efficiently stick to
paved surfaces given the frigid air temperatures, so travel will
be slick through this evening. Special Weather Statements for
slippery travel and reduced visibilities remain in effect for
locations where snow is expected to continue for at least the
next couple of hours.
The biggest change since the last update was an upgrade to a
Lake Effect Snow Warning for Geauga County; confidence has
increased in the potential for 6 or more inches of snowfall
primarily in the higher elevations of the county. Wouldn`t be
surprised if portions of eastern Cuyahoga County and Lake County
approached 6 inches, although remaining snow showers for those
locations will likely be a bit more progressive which will
limit potential for significant additional snow accumulation.
Will continue to monitor and may need to do a quick upgrade if a
band of snow stalls over that area.
Already seeing signs of winds becoming a touch more westerly in
western zones, which should allow snow to remain transient and
eventually focus into the primary snowbelt area as winds shift
to the southwest by area Monday morning.
Previous Discussion...
An Arctic cold front (with little wind shift but a notable
temperature drop) is approaching the I-75 corridor as of the
3:00 PM hour. This front will sweep through the entire area this
evening, ushering in bitterly cold air that will linger through
a good portion of the work week. Cold weather and snow-related
hazards are posted for the forecast area in response.
*Regarding the cold:
No changes have been made to the Cold Weather Advisory, and the
general timing and temperature/wind chill values remain similar
to the prior forecast. Expect low temperatures between 0 and 10
above tonight with minimum wind chills of -10 to -20 degrees.
Wind chills should fall below 0 from west to east between 8 PM
and 2 AM tonight. After highs on either side of 10 above on
Monday, lows Monday night will fall to -5 to 5 above with
minimum wind chills again in the -10 to -20 degree range. All of
this falls within the "advisory" range for wind chills, so the
Cold Weather Advisory remains as posted. The coldest night, and
likely greatest impact to infrastructure, will be Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning.
*Regarding the lake effect snow:
A Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow has been added
for Summit, Portage, and Trumbull Counties until 4 AM Monday.
Otherwise, advisories remain as posted until 10 AM Monday for
Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula, and Crawford PA. For Erie
County PA, the Advisory is valid until 4 PM Monday.
A dominant north-south oriented band with connection to Lake
Huron is cutting across Lake, Geauga, and Portage Counties as of
the 3:00 PM hour and drifting east. This band is putting down
heavy snow with rates likely in the 2" per hour range and
visibility dropping below 1/4 of a mile. This band is drifting
east and should continue gradually pivoting east-northeast
across far Northeast OH and into Northwest PA this evening. A
broad area of generally lighter lake enhanced snow is ongoing
across much of the rest of the snowbelt, Cleveland metro, and
even into Erie and Huron Counties.
While winds are beginning to gradually back from a northerly to
more westerly direction, causing lake effect bands to gradually
drift east (and not linger too long in one spot), intensity is
expected to remain impressive through about 6z/1 AM Monday. In
fact, activity outside of the current single dominant band
should uptick this evening due to synoptic support from a
shortwave and the arctic front, moisture from Lake Michigan, and
increasing and deepening instability over the lake. This will
lead to a broad spray of lake effect snow (with likely a few
briefly more organized and very intense bands playing out on a
localized basis) for several hours from roughly Sandusky points
east-southeast. This will include the Cleveland metro and entire
primary and secondary snowbelts at times, getting into the
Youngstown area too through this evening. There may be a brief
lull behind the shortwave late tonight before a west-east band
begins developing as winds go more westerly, increasing the
fetch and convergence along the eastern shoreline early Monday.
This band should impact the northeastern lakeshore counties,
and in particulary Erie County, for a time into Monday morning
before gradually lifting offshore through Monday afternoon. Snow
ratios will lower late tonight into Monday as very dry and cold
Arctic air flows in and lowers the DGZ below the clouds.
The rational for the Summit-Portage-Trumbull advisories was the
expectation for locally up to 4" or so of snow in northern
portions of these counties, between the north-south band
pivoting through now and the uptick on northwest flow this
evening. It will get quite squally at times through this evening
and with temperatures getting cold, roads should get rough. The
other advisories remain on track. Have amounts tickling warning
criteria in both northern Geauga and northeastern Erie
Counties. For Geauga, most of this snow will fall over the next
several hours. If banding looks to start persistent more than
expected over Geauga a quick warning upgrade can`t be ruled out
at any time. For Erie, it seems snow will be a bit too on and
off to exceed 6" in many spots tonight. However, if banding is
a bit slower to lift out than expected on Monday amounts would
start getting up there. Given it`s uncertain how quickly the
west-east band starts developing on Monday before lifting
offshore, continue to hold with the advisory for Erie PA.
Locations impacted by lake effect this evening, including
locations not in advisories, can expect impacts to travel
conditions due to visibility fluctuations, quick bursts of snow,
and increasingly slick road conditions as it gets cold. This is
of primary concern in counties such as Erie (OH), Huron, Lorain,
Medina, and Mahoning.
*Snow outside of the lake effect:
The whole area will be subject to scattered to numerous snow
showers along and ahead of the Arctic front through this evening
and into the first half of tonight. Some snow showers will be
moderate, and a localized more intense snow squall is possible.
While snow accumulations will be light with this non-lake effect
snow shower activity (generally an inch or less for Northwest
Ohio, and half an inch to two inches in North Central Ohio and
Mid Ohio), quick visibility drops and increasingly slick/icy
roads as temperatures drop will pose travel difficulties this
evening and into tonight. Not enough for a headline, though did
put up a Special Wx Statement to increase messaging and
awareness for these snow showers across the area. If something
particularly nasty develops, a Snow Squall Warning could be
needed as has already played out in far west-central OH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The worst of this Arctic blast and airmass will arrive Tuesday into
Tuesday night. The axis of a deep upper level trough will move
across the Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening. At the lower
levels, westerly flow will continue Arctic air advection. There will
be some lingering lake effect snow showers Tuesday into Tuesday
evening for the snowbelt area of far NEOH and NWPA. Additional
snowfall accumulations will be light due limited snow growth zone in
the Arctic airmass. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the
single digits with wind chills between -15F and -5F. The heart of
this Arctic airmass and center of the surface high pressure will
move across southern Ohio Tuesday night. Skies will clear out for
most of the area and temperatures will be extremely cold with
overnight lows between -13F and -5F. The wind chills Tuesday night
and early Wednesday morning will be between -24F and -15F. A light
southerly wind and a slow return of warmer air advection will come
on Wednesday. High temperatures will start the slow climb upwards
into the teens. It will not be as cold Wednesday night with low
temps in the single digits to lower teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The moderation of temperatures will continue for the end of the week
into next weekend. Another weaker upper level trough will swing
through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday. A weak
cold front or surface trough will move through the area Thursday
night. This next weather system may bring some very light snow
showers across the area. Temperatures will eventually return back to
more seasonable levels by next Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A mix of flight conditions continues across the airspace this
morning as lake effect snow is transitioning from a widespread
event to a narrow event that will only impact portions of NE OH
and NW PA. For now, there are still residual pockets of snow and
IFR moving through the region, but the breaks in the snow and
the clouds are increasing and believe that most of the area will
switch over to VFR through the overnight hours. Winds will start
to settle on a westerly direction as they continue to back
behind the Arctic front. KERI will be the focus for the lake
effect snow today as a westerly band should develop over the
lake and move into that terminal before lifting north into
western New York. Dry air entering the region should allow for
clouds to scatter out with time today and have most terminals
losing ceilings at some point with KYNG and KERI being the
likely holdouts.
Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings and visibility may redevelop in snow
across NE OH and NW PA on Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots this afternoon will become westerly
overnight. Winds will become more west-southwesterly between 20 to 30
knots on Monday into Monday night. Winds will decreasing between 15
and 25 knots on Tuesday. These winds combined with an Arctic airmass
and water temperatures of 32 to 33 F will lead to heavy freezing
spray where water remains open and ice free from Avon Point to
Ripley. However, expect ice formation to rapidly increase through
midweek. Southwest winds will diminish between 10 and 15 knots
Tuesday night through Thursday and the potential for open waters may
become mostly ice covered. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is effect
from 06Z Monday through 06Z Wednesday to account for the coldest
temperatures and strongest winds where water remains open in the
open waters from Avon Point to Ripley.
Small Craft Advisory issuance has been suspended until further
notice for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley due to
extensive ice cover.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Arctic air will arrive early Monday morning 1/20, and persist
through Wednesday 1/22. The coldest period is expected to be
late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning with current
forecast temperatures approaching record lows for 1/22. Below
are the current record low temperatures for 1/20-22.
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
01-20 -17(1985) -22(1985) -18(1985) -24(1985) -20(1985) -15(1985)
01-21 -20(1984) -19(1985) -17(1985) -24(1985) -20(1985) -16(1985)
01-22 -12(1936) -10(1936) -10(1936) -13(1936) -9(2022) -7(1970)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
OHZ011-012-014-089.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for
OHZ013.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
OHZ021>023.
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ001>003.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
PAZ003.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for
LEZ166>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Maines/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Griffin
CLIMATE...
NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion